How to Gamble on the First Round of the NFL Draft

I have great news for all the degenerates out there! No more betting on table tennis, E-sports, or Madden 20 simulations because real sports are back!!! Well, kind of. Tonight is the first night of the 2020 NFL draft. A night where degenerates, like myself, are going to make up for all the money we would have lost on the NCAA Tournament, NBA Playoffs, and the first half of the MLB season. If you’re with me and plan on making a few wagers tonight, here are a few plays I think should consider.

Bet #1

There have been rumors circulating about former Alabama QB, Tua Tagovailoa, being in serious talks with the Miami Dolphins ever since he first declared for the draft. It felt like a for sure thing that Tagovailoa was going to be drafted by the Dolphins until a couple of weeks ago, when rumors were that the Dolphins might prefer the former Oregon QB, Justin Herbert, over the 2017 national champion. However, as draft day has began approaching, those rumors began to die down some, and recruiting and Alabama football guru Mark Jennings (@MarkJennings55) said on his podcast that the Dolphins and Tagovailoa have a draft promise. Plus, the Dolphins would love a player that would help improve upon their declining attendance, and I think it is safe to say the former Crimson Tide signal caller would do a better job at this than Herbert. You can also bet Tagovailoa to be one of the first five players drafted at -200, but at -145, I like this bet more.

The Pick: Team to Draft Tua Tagovailoa: Miami Dolphins -145

Bet #2

Piggy-backing off the first bet, the question remains: Where will Justin Herbert go? I think a very likely option is immediately after Tua Tagovailoa. The Los Angeles Chargers have the 6th pick in the draft, and they are now starting life without Phillip Rivers. Tyrod Taylor is a serviceable QB for the short-term, but he is most likely not their long-term option. Justin Herbert is exactly what the Chargers are looking for. He plays very similarly to how Phillip Rivers played in his prime, except he’s an inch taller and about 10 pounds heavier, which is a good thing! Plus, picking a QB who played his college ball on the west coast will most likely be a popular decision among Charger fans. I’m willing to take a shot on Herbert to the Chargers at plus money.

The Pick: Team to Draft Justin Herbert: Los Angeles Chargers +165

Bet #3

Sticking with the theme of betting on quarterbacks, my third wager has to do with Utah State QB, Jordan Love. Jordan Love has been trending upwards in NFL mock drafts. Mel Kiper has him going 19th in his latest mock draft, and Todd McShay has had him as high as 6th in his mock drafts. Love is a sought after player because of his combination of speed (4.65 40-yard dash) and arm strength. The over/under on when he’ll get drafted is 25.5 picks. Given where the experts have him going and the draft inflation that QBs benefit from in the draft, I’ll take a shot on the under with Jordan Love.

The Pick: Draft Position- Jordan Love: Under 25.5 picks -130

Bet #4

I’ll be completely upfront about this bet. I will be staying off this one due to it being too risky, but it is a high risk-high reward bet. This is the bet you want to make if you only want to bet $3 tonight and have somewhat of a realistic shot at turning it into over $100. While I think CeeDee Lamb will most likely be the first WR chosen in the NFL Draft, I do think there is about a 10%-15% chance that LSU WR, Justin Jefferson, will be the first WR selected in the draft. He was dominant this season with Joe Burrow throwing to him, and he is the 2nd WR chosen in Mel Kiper’s most recent mock draft. If you’re looking for a high risk bet with a ton of upside, Justin Jefferson might be the bet for you.

The Pick: 1st Drafted Wide Receiver: Justin Jefferson +4900

Bet #5

This is another bet I’m not going to make, but that is only because I am an Auburn fan, who won’t bet on anything Georgia just out of principle. Georgia RB, D’Andre Swift, has ripped my heart out on multiple occasions. I can remember him icing the game against my Auburn Tigers in the 2017 SEC championship game and doing the same during the regular season in 2018. All indications are that Swift is going to be the first RB taken in the draft tonight. The only problem I could see for Swift is Jonathan Taylor out of Wisconsin, but I think NFL owners know much of Taylor’s success has been due to the offensive system Wisconsin operates. You’ll have to lay a bit of juice on this bet, but I really think Swift is the first RB chosen.

The Pick: 1st Drafted Running Back: D’Andre Swift -240


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